The Sunday Five - 8/23/26

NC POLITICAL STORIES THAT MATTERED THIS WEEK

Week Ending August 23, 2026

The midterms are getting closer, and North Carolina politics is beginning to look less like summer positioning and more like an election already underway.

This week brought major decisions about how North Carolinians will vote, a new snapshot of the U.S. Senate race, huge money moving into a Supreme Court contest many voters may still know little about, another fight over electric bills that directly affects Eastern North Carolina, and some surprising data about what North Carolinians actually believe defines them politically.

Here are the Sunday Five.

1. North Carolina Just Settled Some of Its Biggest Early-Voting Fights

The State Board of Elections spent nearly 12 hours this week deciding early-voting plans for 20 counties where local election boards could not reach bipartisan agreement.

That is important context: the other 80 counties approved their plans unanimously and on a bipartisan basis.

In most of the disputed counties, the Republican-majority state board sided with Republican-backed proposals. Among the decisions were plans eliminating Sunday voting in Nash, Wayne, Harnett and Chatham counties, while Lee County retained one Sunday. Battles also involved early-voting locations on or near college campuses.

Republicans supporting the changes have argued that counties face staffing difficulties and that some new schedules provide more total voting hours even without Sundays. Democrats and voting-rights groups argue that eliminating Sundays or certain locations disproportionately affects voters who have historically used them.

The decisions came during the same week Gov. Josh Stein vetoed House Bill 958, a broader elections measure that would make several changes involving early voting, voter-list maintenance, election audits and ballot challenges. Republican lawmakers argue the legislation strengthens election integrity; Stein and Democrats argue it could make legitimate ballots easier to challenge.

Why it matters: Before candidates even finish making their closing arguments, the rules surrounding the November election have become one of North Carolina's biggest political battles.

2. A New Poll Shows Cooper Still Ahead — But a Much Closer Senate Race

Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper continues to lead Republican Michael Whatley in the race for North Carolina's open U.S. Senate seat, but a new High Point University poll produced one of the tighter margins we have seen recently.

The August 21 HPU survey showed Cooper at 50% and Whatley at 45% among likely voters, a five-point difference. High Point University's Survey Research Center confirms its latest Poll 126 surveyed North Carolina registered and likely voters.

That's notably closer than two other recent surveys. Elon University showed Cooper leading 53%-42%, while the Carolina Journal/Harper Polling survey put the race at roughly 52%-39%.

Different polls use different samples and methodologies, so the HPU result should not automatically be interpreted as an eight-point swing toward Whatley.

But one thing is consistent across the recent data: Cooper remains ahead. The disagreement is over how far.

QuidAI's NC POLITICAL DASHBOARD currently has it at 64%/36%!!

Why it matters: This is one of the most consequential Senate races in America. For Republicans, the next phase of the campaign is about closing that gap. For Democrats, it's about protecting a lead before the massive fall advertising war begins.

3. Don't Ignore the NC Supreme Court Race — There's Already a Huge Money Gap

The race between Democratic Justice Anita Earls and Republican challenger Sarah Stevens may become North Carolina's most important down-ballot contest.

And right now, the fundraising difference is enormous.

According to State Board of Elections data reviewed by Carolina Public Press, Earls has raised approximately $4.4 million from nearly 16,000 contributions. Stevens has raised about $336,000 from 285 contributions.

The race is much closer than the fundraising totals.

Recent polling cited by Carolina Public Press has generally placed Earls ahead by only two to five points, with a sizable group of voters still undecided.

The consequences extend far beyond one judicial seat.

Republicans currently hold a 5-2 majority on the North Carolina Supreme Court. A Stevens victory would make that majority 6-1. An Earls victory would preserve the present balance and keep alive Democrats' possibility of competing for control of the court when additional seats come up in 2028.

The court ultimately hears disputes involving elections, redistricting, education, criminal law, utilities and constitutional questions.

Why it matters: North Carolina has repeatedly seen Supreme Court races decided by razor-thin margins. In 2024, Allison Riggs won by just 734 votes. This is exactly the kind of race voters can overlook at the bottom of the ballot — until the decisions made by that court affect the entire state.

4. Another Duke Energy Rate Increase Could Hit Eastern NC Households

Here's a political story that may matter more around the kitchen table than almost anything happening on the campaign trail.

Duke Energy Progress, which serves roughly 1.6 million households largely in Eastern North Carolina and the Asheville area, is asking state regulators to approve higher electric rates.

After originally seeking a much larger increase, Duke and the state's Public Staff negotiated a proposed settlement that would raise residential rates by approximately 9.3% over two years.

For a typical residential customer, that works out to about $9.62 more per month beginning in January 2027, followed by another $5.89 per month in 2028.

Attorney General Jeff Jackson has refused to sign onto the agreement, arguing the increase remains too high. The settlement would also return $120 million in clean-energy tax credits to customers and create $10 million in additional assistance for lower-income households.

The Utilities Commission still has the final say.

There's another political wrinkle: rapid growth from large electricity users, including data centers, has intensified debate over who should pay for future grid expansion. Jackson and other state officials have pushed for large-load customers to shoulder more of those costs rather than shifting them onto residential customers.

Why it matters: Affordability is already shaping the 2026 election. Electric bills are something voters actually see every month — and in Eastern North Carolina, this rate case makes that issue very real.

5. North Carolinians May Be Much Less Ideological Than Social Media Makes Them Look

One of the most interesting political findings of the week didn't involve a candidate at all.

An Elon University poll released Tuesday asked North Carolinians how they identify themselves.

Only 34% identified with MAGA, while 29% identified with democratic socialism.

Far larger numbers of Republicans, Democrats and independents identified with broader descriptions such as working class, middle class and proud North Carolinian. Elon researchers found substantial overlap among voters who otherwise disagree politically.

Independents were particularly interesting. Their most common identities tended to revolve around community, class, religion, the Second Amendment, conservation and lifestyle rather than affiliation with a national political movement.

That doesn't mean ideological differences aren't real. They clearly are.

But it suggests something campaigns sometimes forget: most voters don't spend their lives thinking about politics the way political professionals and social media do.

Why it matters: The campaigns that win North Carolina may ultimately be the ones that connect national issues to ordinary identities — work, family, community, affordability, safety and what it means to live in North Carolina — instead of simply speaking to the loudest partisan corners of the internet.

The Bottom Line

This week offered a pretty good preview of where North Carolina politics is headed this fall.

The fight over who votes, where they vote and under what rules is intensifying. Roy Cooper remains the frontrunner in the Senate race, but Republicans finally have a poll showing a more manageable deficit. The Supreme Court race is emerging as a potentially enormous down-ballot battle. And issues like electricity prices remind us that elections aren't ultimately decided in Raleigh political circles — they're decided by people looking at their bills and deciding whether life feels better or worse.

And perhaps the most important finding of the week is the simplest:

North Carolinians may be divided politically, but they aren't nearly as easily divided into neat ideological boxes as our national political conversation suggests.

We'll keep watching what matters — not just what's loud.

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